What if a Category 3 Atlantic hurricane hit right at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay?
A storm surge of up to 12 feet would wallop low-lying areas along the shoreline. parts of Pasadena would be under water. Power would likely be out for up to a week.
Across the state Ocean City and low-lying areas of Anne Arundel and Queen Anne's counties would be evacuated.
State and county emergency planners ran mock emergency procedures this week for a fictional Category 3 hurricane named Zoe.
About 80 men and women from dozens of agencies manned the state's emergency operations center north of Reisterstown running scenarios to practice for just such a storm.
They also reminded citizens to be prepared for the hurricane season that begins June 1.
"Maryland hasn't had a hurricane or tropical storm make direct landfall in at least 50 years," said Maryland Emergency Management Director John Droneburg. "However, we can't rely on past experience when it comes to keeping Maryland citizens safe."
The exercise was part of a national preparedness drill run by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, with customized scenarios set for different areas of the country, and focused on mass evacuations from Ocean City and the ripple effects that would have statewide.
Anne Arundel emergency personnel participated in part on Monday with a table-top exercise at emergency headquarters in Glen Burnie. About 30 people from the full gamut of agencies that might be involved in planning should a bad storm hit here attended.
"It was an opportunity for us to come together to review what we are going to do should a storm of that strength hit. It would have a significant impact on Anne Arundel County," said Capt. Thomas Wilson, chief of county emergency operations.
"While MEMA concentrated on evacuation we looked at communications, specifically notifying people in low-lying areas," he said.
They tested the reverse 911 system that would allow officials to get word to specific neighborhoods in direct danger from a major storm.
At the Maryland Emergency Management Agency's operations center five huge television screens connected to a Web-based emergency management system showed the changing path of Zoe, which on Friday was forecast to hit the Carolina coast, then tweaked to hit the mouth of the bay.
As part of the exercise Ocean City was being evacuated and representatives of the various agencies playing along reacted to different scenarios thrown at them by the "exercise controller." Two of the screens kept running events and reactions to them posted for all to see.
One agency sought help evacuating homebound and sickly people around Denton. Another needed 200 blankets at a shelter in Dundalk. The State Highway Administration needed uniformed police officers to provide security at a comfort station in Cambridge.
It was predicted it would take 24-48 hours to evacuate Ocean City on a holiday weekend.
Gridlock would likely ensue on some escape routes. If the storm was near people stuck on roads would be ushered to shelters across the Eastern Shore.
Once tropical storm level winds hit, the Bay Bridge would be shut down and officials also would have to shut down westbound access to Kent Island, causing more traffic headaches.
In a briefing later in the afternoon officials from some of the agencies reported what they learned or where they found themselves at that point in the exercise.
State police were "tapped out" and were requesting help from other agencies to help man intersections. The Red Cross reported it needed shelter for about 97,000 people and was requesting supplies from stockpiles in the region. The Department of Transportation said Route 50 eastbound was open to emergency vehicles only.
In a far-fetched scenario transportation officials also were preparing to evacuate people out of Cambridge by boat, using ferries or dinner tour boats to transport people up to Baltimore ahead of the storm.
"It will never happen," said Katie Leahan, Maryland Emergency Management Agency spokesman. "The spaceship from 'Independence Day' or the Loch Ness monster would have to be upon us," to even attempt that water evacuation.
But nonetheless they ran the scenario, just in case.
And they also urged residents to be prepared to sustain themselves for at least 72 hours. "Get a kit, make a plan and stay informed" is the battle cry.
They offered these tips:
Having a battery-powered radio and extra batteries so you can listen for directions from emergency officials if the power goes out.
Remembering to refill prescriptions so you have enough if stores are closed or you're asked to shelter-in-place.
Storing canned and non-perishable food that can be easily opened and eaten without heat if necessary.
Readying clothes and personal toiletries you can take with you in case you are asked to evacuate.
Have extra cash, just in case ATMs and other cash sources are inoperable or closed.
Carry personal identification, including birth certificates and another other information that may be helpful to you, such as names and telephone numbers of relatives or close friends.